The Receipts
Prediction Record
Every dated, falsifiable call on this site, and how it actually landed — including the ones we got wrong. Anyone can look accurate by only remembering their hits, so the misses are on this page too, at the same size.
Our own calls
Forecasts Vice Heist made in its own voice. A partial counts as half a hit — a call that got the window right but the mechanism wrong is not a clean win.
63% (1 hit, 3 partial, 0 miss of 4 resolved)
Partial
Rockstar will publish the full radio-station list and licensed-track reveal in the final stretch before launch, expanding the confirmed column significantly in the late-October / early-November 2026 window.
The music reveal landed on September 17, six weeks earlier than our window and in a bigger form than we expected: a 34-track Atlantic Records album with six singles out. The other half missed — Rockstar named no radio station, so the station list we said would arrive still has not. Right that a reveal was coming, wrong on timing and wrong that it would include the dial.
GTA 6 Soundtrack — 34 Confirmed Songs, and the V-Rock QuestionPartial
Our August 20 call: the leak would not move the November 19 release or the August 27 Extended Look, would confirm no feature, and Rockstar would almost certainly never acknowledge it publicly.
The schedule and status calls held: the Extended Look aired August 27 as announced, November 19 did not move, and no leaked detail became confirmed by being leaked. The acknowledgment call missed. On August 26 Rockstar posted a statement calling the leak heartbreaking for its team, and the 2022 precedent, when it confirmed that breach within a day, should have warned us.
The GTA 6 Leaks, Explained — CyberLeek, the 192GB Dump, and What's RealPartial
Our call: the next marketing beat lands in the late-July-through-August window, with Take-Two's August 7 earnings call as the only real catalyst on the calendar — and it may not be called 'Trailer 3' at all.
The window landed and the naming caveat was exactly right — Rockstar titled it 'An Extended Look', unnumbered. But we predicted a no-advance-warning Newswire drop, and Rockstar pre-announced a dated premiere three weeks out. Nobody had the Netflix exclusive.
GTA 6 Trailer 3 Has a Date: August 27 — on Netflix First, and Rockstar Isn't Calling It Trailer 3Hit
Our pre-call framework: unhedged 'November 19' date language on Take-Two's May 21 call would continue the delay-then-hold pattern, and a hedge like 'remains our target' would signal slippage.
Zelnick reaffirmed November 19 in plain terms and laid out a digital-first summer marketing push. No hedge appeared, and the date has held since.
Take-Two's May 21 Earnings Call — What We Were Watching
Claims we assessed
Dated claims made by leakers, analysts and retail backends that we covered without endorsing. These are scored separately on purpose: banking someone else’s hit as ours, or disowning their miss, would make the number above meaningless.
0% (0 hit, 0 partial, 3 miss of 3 resolved) · 1 still open.
Pending
DetectiveSeeds: Sony engineers are embedded at Rockstar to secure a 60fps lock on PS5 Pro at launch, with base PS5 held to a 30fps fidelity mode and no performance mode.
Unresolved until launch specs are published. September 12, 2026 cut against the Pro half: Rockstar North says a 60 FPS option is undecided at all, which is hard to square with a Pro lock being secured. The base-PS5-30fps half now looks stronger than when we first assessed it.
The PS5 Pro 60FPS Rumor — DetectiveSeeds, the May Firmware, and What It Means for Base PS5Miss
GTAForums leaker Graczdari_91 named Tuesday, May 26 for Trailer 3, tied to a Sony State of Play appearance.
May 26 passed with no trailer, and the June 2 State of Play carried no GTA 6 at all. We published the counter-signal in the same article: Take-Two's CEO had pointed at a later window, so we refused to call the date confirmed.
Trailer 3 May 26 Call — The Best Buy Debunker Names a DateMiss
A stacked signal set — Best Buy's affiliate backend plus a feature-flagged PSN store entry — pointed to pre-orders opening in the May 18–21 window.
Pre-orders actually opened June 25 at $79.99 Standard / $99.99 Ultimate, with no Collector's tier. Two independent logistics channels agreed and both were still wrong about timing.
Pre-Order Watch — The May 18–21 Window and What We ExpectMiss
Best Buy's affiliate backend pointed to a May 18–21 window for Trailer 3 and pre-orders going live.
The window closed with nothing. Pre-orders opened a month later on June 25, and the video was never numbered 'Trailer 3' — Rockstar announced 'An Extended Look' for August 27. We surfaced the signal but declined to call it confirmed.
Trailer 3 Watch — What the Missed May 18–21 Window Means
How this is scored
- A call only appears here if it was dated and falsifiable when published. Vague predictions cannot be graded, so we do not make them and do not count them.
- Outcomes are set once the verify date passes, and the original article keeps its prediction text intact — we annotate rather than rewrite history.
- Hit means the substance landed. Partial means part landed and part did not. Miss means it did not happen. Pending means the date has not arrived.
- Unresolved calls are listed as pending rather than hidden. Quietly dropping open predictions is the easiest way to flatter a record.